Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Business Confidence Survey, Sponsored by Bronze Partner, Red Hot Business Coaching & Consulting

Key Findings – February 2026 Business Confidence Survey

The February 2026 shows a modest but clear improvement in business sentiment compared with October 2025. The proportion of businesses feeling confident or very confident increased to 40% in February, up from 31% in October, with “very confident” responses appearing for the first time. Those reporting conditions as “It’s OK” also rose slightly. Importantly, negative sentiment declined, with the share of businesses that were “not that confident” or “not confident at all” falling from over 31% to under 19%. Overall, confidence has lifted, suggesting cautious optimism heading into 2026.

The February 2026 survey indicates a strengthening outlook compared with October 2025, particularly over the short to medium term. Expectations for the next three months improved markedly, with businesses anticipating worse conditions falling from 31% to 15%, while those expecting better conditions rose to 35%. Sentiment over the next six months also lifted, with a higher share expecting improvement. Looking 12 months ahead, optimism increased further, with over 71% expecting conditions to be better, up from 64% in October. Overall, the results suggest growing confidence and a more positive forward view entering 2026.

The February 2026 survey shows improved near-term confidence in New Zealand’s business conditions compared with October 2025. Expectations for the next three months strengthened, with those anticipating worse conditions falling from 35% to 23%, while optimism doubled to 33%. The six-month outlook also improved, with nearly half of respondents expecting conditions to be better, up from 40%. Looking 12 months ahead, confidence remained high but softened slightly, with expectations of improvement easing from 62% to 59% and a small lift in pessimism. Overall, sentiment became more positive in the short term, with longer-term expectations largely stable.

The February 2026 survey indicates that cost pressures remain firmly entrenched for local businesses, with little change from October 2025. In February, 70% of respondents expected the cost of doing business to be more expensive over the next six months, broadly consistent with October’s results. There was a slight increase in those expecting costs to be much more expensive, rising from 14% to 17%, while expectations of costs being somewhat more expensive eased marginally. Around 30% expected costs to remain the same, unchanged from October. Notably, no respondents anticipated any reduction in costs, highlighting ongoing cost challenges entering 2026.

The February 2026 survey shows that while most businesses are not currently experiencing staff shortages, labour constraints remain a key forward-looking issue. In February, 30% of businesses reported difficulty filling vacancies, broadly consistent with conditions seen in late 2025. However, looking ahead, nearly half of respondents (48%) expect recruitment challenges over the next 12 months, indicating anticipated pressure as hiring intentions increase. The contrast between current and future expectations suggests that labour market tightness may re-emerge as business activity lifts in 2026, with workforce availability likely to remain a constraint on growth for many Hutt Valley firms.

Key Findings – October 2025 Business Confidence Survey

The latest business confidence survey shows a dip in sentiment across the Hutt Valley since July 2025. No respondents now describe themselves as very confident (down from 8.1%), while 31.2% remain confident (up from 27.0%) and 39.3% say their outlook is “OK” (up from 26.6%)—indicating more cautious optimism. Meanwhile, low confidence is rising: 19.7% are not that confident, and not confident at all has more than doubled from 5.4% to 11.5%. Overall, the results highlight growing uncertainty, with fewer businesses feeling strongly positive and more signalling concern about costs, conditions, and the broader economy.

Expectations for future business conditions are mixed—short-term confidence has weakened, but longer-term outlooks remain steady.

In the next three months, 31.2% of businesses expect conditions to worsen (up from 24.3%), while just 21.3% expect improvement. Six months out, optimism softens slightly, with 43.6% anticipating better conditions (down from 46.6%), though most still foresee stability or growth.

Looking 12 months ahead, 63.6% expect improvement—only a small dip from July—signalling that while caution dominates the short term, businesses remain hopeful for recovery through 2026.

For NZ, business sentiment has improved slightly since July 2025, with fewer expecting decline and more anticipating stability or gradual recovery. In the next three months, 35.0% expect conditions to worsen (down from 41.9%), while nearly half (48.3%) see stability ahead. Over six months, optimism has risen—40.4% now expect improvement, up from 34.3%—signalling hopes of easing challenges by mid-2026.

Looking 12 months out, confidence remains strong: 62.1% expect improvement, and only 19.0% foresee further decline. Overall, sentiment for NZ appears to be stabilising, with steady long-term optimism despite short-term pressures.

Businesses continue to face high operating costs, though pressures appear to be easing slightly since mid-2025.

In October, 63.9% expect costs to rise over the next six months (down from 70.3%), and those predicting much higher costs have halved to 6.6%. Meanwhile, 32.8% expect costs to stay the same, and a small 3.3% even anticipate a decline—the first sign of possible relief for some time.

Overall, cost pressures remain significant but are showing early signs of moderation as businesses adapt to higher baseline expenses.

Recruitment activity remains steady, with current hiring slightly down but with stronger expectations ahead.

As of October, 19.7% of businesses are currently recruiting (down from 20.6% in July), reflecting cautious short-term spending and cost control. However, confidence in future hiring has lifted — 47.5% expect to recruit within the next 12 months, up from 41.7%.

While most businesses aren’t hiring now, nearly half anticipate doing so in the year ahead, suggesting growing optimism for recovery and rising demand through 2026.

Key Findings – July 2025 Business Confidence Survey

The July 2025 Business Confidence survey indicates a decline in overall confidence compared to March 25. Only 8.11% of businesses report feeling “very confident” and 27.03% “confident,” a significant drop from 50% who felt confident in March. Meanwhile, 26.56% say the outlook is “OK,” and 27.03% feel “not that confident,” showing a shift toward neutral or cautious sentiment. The percentage of businesses feeling “not confident at all” decreased to 5.41% from 11.11%. Overall, the data suggests rising uncertainty and reduced optimism among local businesses.

Business confidence for individual businesses remains optimistic over the long term. In July, 67.13% expect conditions to improve over the next 12 months—only slightly down from 72.22% in March. Shorter-term expectations are more cautious: just 25.67% expect improvement in the next 3 months (down from 38.89% in March), while 50% expect conditions to remain the same. The percentage of businesses expecting conditions to worsen has slightly declined across all timeframes. Overall, businesses are hopeful about recovery, particularly over the next 6–12 months.

Businesses remain cautious about New Zealand’s short-term economic outlook, with 41.90% expecting conditions to worsen in the next 3 months—slightly up from March. Optimism has softened, with only 17.57% expecting improvements in that timeframe. Over the next 6 months, 34.25% expect conditions to improve, down from 44.45% in March. For the 12-month outlook, confidence remains relatively high, with 63.01% forecasting improvement—though this has dipped from 72.23%. Overall, while long-term optimism endures, businesses are signaling increasing uncertainty in the near term.

Most businesses in the Hutt Valley expect costs to rise over the

next six months. A combined 70.27% anticipate expenses will become “somewhat” or “much more” expensive—slightly up from 66.67% in March. The proportion expecting costs to be much more expensive has more than doubled, rising from 5.56% to 13.51%, highlighting growing concern about increased operating costs. No respondents expect costs to fall, and 29.73% believe they will stay the same. Overall, cost pressure remains a significant and growing concern for local businesses.

Recruitment activity among Hutt Valley businesses remains stable but low, with only 20.55% actively recruiting in July 25—slightly down from 23.53% in March. Looking ahead, 41.67% expect to recruit within the next 12 months, almost unchanged from March (41.18%). While the majority (around 79%) are not currently recruiting, over 40% still anticipate hiring, indicating an improved requirement for talent. This relatively unchanged position indicates no major shifts in recruitment outlook.

Key Findings – March 2025 Business Confidence Survey

Business owner sentiment has strengthened considerably since September 2024, with confidence levels rising decisively. Half of respondents now describe themselves as “confident” about their business outlook—nearly double the previous figure of 25.93%. The notable decline in neutral responses (“it’s OK”) from 48.15% to 16.67% suggests a shift toward more optimistic perspectives. While a small share remains cautious, the overall trend reflects growing assurance in the business environment. This evolving sentiment indicates that more business leaders are feeling empowered to take strategic action, positioning themselves for growth and capitalising on a more favourable economic and operational climate.

Over the past two survey periods, there has been a marked improvement in business sentiment regarding New Zealand’s economic outlook. The proportion of business owners anticipating improved conditions over the next 12 months increased from 66.66% in September 2024 to 72.22% in March 2025. Concurrently, those expecting a deterioration in conditions declined significantly from 18.52% to 11.12%. This shift reflects a strengthening sense of confidence in the macroeconomic environment and suggests a more stable foundation for strategic investment and growth. Business leaders are increasingly positioning for opportunity rather than resilience, signalling a positive inflection in outlook and planning.

Between September 2024 and March 2025, business confidence in New Zealand has remained on an upward trajectory, particularly in the 12-month outlook. The percentage of business owners expecting improved conditions rose slightly from 70.37% to 72.23%, sustaining a highly optimistic sentiment. While short-term views remain cautious, with just over 38% still expecting worse conditions in the next 3–6 months, the proportion anticipating improvements continues to rise, particularly in the 6-month window (from 40.74% to 44.45%). This indicates growing resilience and a steady recovery narrative, with businesses increasingly positioning for long-term growth despite near-term challenges.

Business owners are anticipating rising operational costs over the next six months, with sentiment shifting notably from September 2024 to March 2025. While those expecting costs to remain the same declined from 40.74% to 33.33%, the share of respondents forecasting that doing business will become “somewhat more expensive” rose significantly from 48.15% to 61.11%. Encouragingly, the proportion expecting costs to be “much more expensive” dropped from 11.11% to 5.56%, suggesting that while inflationary pressures remain, expectations of extreme cost increases are easing. This points to cautious cost awareness rather than alarm, as businesses adapt to a more stable expense environment.

The staffing issues for business in the Hutt Valley have continued to be relatively flat. There is a small number of businesses experiencing issues filling staff vacancies right now and whilst this has risen from 15.38% to 25.53% between Sept 24 and March 25, the majority of businesses are not experiencing issues, and are not expected to be recruiting at the present time. Forward-looking expectations remain stable, with 41.18% of respondents anticipating recruitment in the next 12 months—up marginally from 40.74%. This highlights a consistent outlook among business leaders about workforce needs.

Key Findings – September 2024 Business Confidence Survey

Between June and September 2024, businesses in the Hutt Valley reveal mixed sentiments regarding the business outlook. Only a small portion of respondents, 3.7%, feel very confident about their business’s future, while 25.93% are confident. The majority, 48.15%, describe their outlook as OK, indicating a neutral or cautious perspective. On the other hand, a combined 22.22% are either not that confident (11.11%) or not confident at all (11.11%), reflecting significant concerns for some businesses..

Expectations for New Zealand’s business conditions are evolving. In June 2024, many respondents expressed concern about near-term declines, with 34.21% anticipating worsening conditions in the next 3 months and 37.14% in the next 6 months. Looking beyond the immediate future, they had a more optimistic outlook, with 40% of respondents believing that conditions will improve over the next 12 months.

By September 2024, the sentiment shifts notably. The proportion of those expecting deterioration in the next 3 months drops to 26.92%, and 23.07% foresee an upswing. This growing optimism is further reflected in the longer-term outlook, with 40.74% and 66.66% of respondents expecting much or somewhat better conditions in the 6- and 12-month horizons, respectively.

There are shifting expectations for New Zealand’s business conditions over the next 12 months. In June 2024, many respondents anticipated short-term declines, with 50.88% predicting deterioration in the next 3 months and 55.35% in the next 6 months. However, optimism emerges by the 12-month mark, as 41.07% foresee improvement. By September 2024, while 42.31% still expect worsening conditions in the next 3 months, 19.23% anticipate better outcomes. Over the next 6 months, 40.74% expect improved conditions, rising to 70.37% over the next year, indicating increasing confidence in long-term recovery.

In September 2024, businesses anticipate an increase in operating costs over the next six months. Specifically, 11.11% expect costs to be much more expensive, while 48.15% foresee them being somewhat more expensive. Conversely, 40.74% believe costs will remain the same, with no respondents expecting any decrease in expenses. This data indicates a general expectation of rising costs for businesses in the near term.

Businesses who have NO need for new recruitment has increased by over 14% to 84.6% between June 24 and September 24. This is a direct reflection of the current confidence in business as well as their current performance. Whilst the expectation for a need for a recruitment in 12 months’ time is higher than currently at 40.7%, this is 9.3% lower than it was in June 24. There is an ongoing downward trend for the need for staff with a drop of 26% for those businesses who expect to recruit staff in 12 months in 1 year.

Key Findings – June 2024 Business Confidence Survey

Doing business continues to be tougher for many Hutt Valley businesses and they expect these conditions will generally continue until 2025. The outlook for New Zealand’s business conditions has changed notably from March to June 2024. In the next 3 months, pessimism increased slightly (33.89% to 34.21%), with more businesses expecting conditions to remain the same (45.76% to 52.63%). For the next 6 months, optimism rose (33.89% to 37.14%) despite an increase in negative expectations (28.81% to 37.14%). Over the next 12 months, optimism decreased (52.63% to 40.00%), with a higher percentage expecting conditions to worsen (22.81% to 28.57%) and fewer expecting the same (35.09% to 31.43%).

The outlook by Hutt Valley businesses for New Zealand’s general business conditions has become more pessimistic from March to June 2024. In the next 3 months, the percentage expecting worse conditions increased slightly (50.88% to 55.26%), while those expecting the same decreased (42.11% to 36.84%). For the next 6 months, pessimism also rose (55.33% to 61.19%) with fewer expecting the same (26.79% to 14.49%). Over the next 12 months, optimism declined (41.07% to 31.43%), while those expecting worse conditions slightly increased (46.42% to 48.57%) and those expecting the same improved (12.50% to 20.00%).

Between March and June 2024, Hutt Valley businesses have adjusted their views on the cost of doing business over the next 6 months. The percentage expecting much higher costs decreased from 18.33% to 10.53%, while those anticipating somewhat higher costs remained relatively stable (56.67% to 55.26%). Notably, more businesses now expect costs to stay the same (23.33% to 34.21%), and the expectation of somewhat lower costs decreased slightly (1.67% to 0.00%).

Between March and June 2024, Hutt Valley businesses have shown a slight decrease in current issues with filling staff vacancies (30.00% to 29.73%). However, the intention to recruit in the next 12 months has declined more noticeably, from 55.00% to 50.00%. This suggests a nuanced shift: while current recruitment challenges have eased marginally, future hiring intentions have tempered. This could reflect cautious optimism or perhaps adjustments in business strategies amid evolving economic conditions or other factors influencing workforce planning in the region.

Businesses in the Hutt Valley expressed mixed sentiments about the Government’s Budget 2024 impact. While 21.05% felt confident or very confident, a significant 42.11% were either not that confident or not confident at all. This indicates a divided perception, reflecting uncertainty or dissatisfaction with the budget’s implications for local business conditions.

Business Confidence Quick Survey Report – March 2024

The Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce completed this Business Confidence Survey in March 2024.

The survey was completed with the support of Bronze Partner, Red Hot Business Coaching & Consultancy.

Key Findings – March 2024 Business Confidence Survey

The feedback provided by businesses highlights several key concerns, particularly focusing on the need to depoliticise business operations and improve collaboration between governmental bodies. There is frustration over the blame game between organisations, hindering progress in addressing critical issues such as water infrastructure.
Economic challenges, including rising supplier costs and the need from their customers for greater value for money, are impacting the current situation, alongside uncertainties surrounding international fuel prices and geopolitical influences.
Their concerns extend to a downturn in business, tentative consumer behaviour, and the pressure of a cost-of-living crisis. Furthermore, there’s a call for better support from the government, particularly in stimulating economic activity and addressing issues such as inadequate forward orders, slow response times, and ineffective policies.
Additionally, challenges related to external contracts, competition with Australian labour markets, infrastructure demands, and managing overheads are highlighted.
Overall, the feedback underscores a complex web of economic and regulatory challenges that businesses face, with a clear call for more supportive and efficient governmental interventions to foster growth and stability.

Key Findings – October 2023 Business Confidence Survey

Outlook is optimistic for businesses after the General Election.
There is a mood towards a more optimistic outlook from businesses following the initial results for the General Election 2023. Just over 57% of businesses feel like they are more or somewhat more optimistic since the Election. A further 33% feel their view is unchanged.
Some of the areas that are coming through the comments which reflect this optimism are the potential for change in compliance requirements for businesses.

Businesses see conditions improving for ‘their business’ and ‘New Zealand’ in the next 12 months
There is a view that business conditions for ‘their business’ will start to improve over the next 12 months. Whilst over 60% think conditions for their business will be the same for the next 3 months, the outlook for ‘much or somewhat better’ conditions over the next 6-month to 12-month periods shows a positive trend. In particular the there is a jump of +20% for the 6-month outlook and over 50% for the 12-month outlook. Whilst the outlook for New Zealand is slightly less bouyant, the trend is similar to that for their businesses.

Cost of doing business is still a factor that concerns businesses
The cost of doing business continues to be a factor which concerns businesses in the Hutt Valley. Only 17% think that costs will be somewhat or much less. 43% consider that the cost of doing business will be much more or somewhat more expensive, and 46% say it will be the same. Businesses are concerned also about a reduction in central government spending with views that ‘businesses may be adversely affected by cuts to government expenses’.

The availability of staff will continue to be a challenge. As we have seen in other surveys during 2023 (and in previous years), businesses in the Hutt Valley continue to look for staff. Just under 50% need staff now and over 66% expect to need recruit staff in the next 12 months.
The ongoing feedback we have from businesses is that finding experienced staff continues to be a challenge. Some businesses have been accessing immigration for their staff needs.

Business Confidence Quick Survey Report – July 2023

The Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce completed this Business Confidence Survey in July 2023.

The survey was completed with the support of Bronze Partner, Red Hot Business Coaching & Consultancy.

Key Findings – July 2023 Business Confidence Survey

The overall picture from this survey is that there is a continuing ‘Cost of doing business crisis’ with over 85% of businesses expecting that the cost of doing business will be ‘Much More or Somewhat More’ expensive over the next 6 months. This is an increase of nearly 7% compared to March 2023 and a 12.5% increase from January 2023.

For the first time in about 2 years, we have seen a slow down in the immediate need for staff with only 38.1% of businesses saying that they are experiencing issues with filling staff vacancies in their business. This is 15.1% change from March 23 when over 50% of businesses were experiencing issues in recruiting staff. We would suggest that this is a direct result of businesses feeling the impact of higher costs and the economic slowdown.

Planning is key for any business and it would appear that planning ahead has been a key activity for Hutt Valley businesses, with 84.2% of businesses having planned and already factored the change in economic situation to their business decisions or have made no change to their approach to their business planning. This indicates that most businesses have been working hard to be ready for this current economic situation.

There are some factors which are a continued trend from previous surveys. These include:

• 9% of businesses indicated that they are you expecting to need to recruit staff in the next 12 months. Whilst this is down slightly from the high experienced in March 2023 (at 68.75%) it does suggest that there is still demand for staff as businesses start to consider the next 12 months.
• There is a continued business sentiment for ‘their business’ in the 3-month and 12-month outlook with businesses expecting that things will be 17.7% and 8.62% ‘Somewhat Better or Much Better’ respectively.

One other area of positive outlook is an overall increase in the business sentiment for ‘New Zealand’ in the 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month outlook with businesses expecting that things will be 5%, 11.8% and 15% ‘Somewhat Better or Much Better’ respectively when compared to March 2023. Most of this sentiment has changed from businesses feeling New Zealand will be ‘Much Worse of Somewhat Worse’.